The last round of South-American qualifying puts the world champions on the road: Argentina travel to Guayaquil for Match-day 18 on Monday, 9 September 2025 (kick-off 20:00 Argentina time, 18:00 local). The game will be staged at Banco Pichincha stadium, where the sea-level Albiceleste must adjust to hot, humid coastal conditions rather than the high-altitude Quito air that used to worry visiting sides.

Both teams are already assured of a 2026 World-Cup ticket—Argentina top the group and Ecuador sit second—yet there is still prestige, ranking points, and plenty of personal motivation at stake.

Argentina: Who is likely to start?

Lionel Scaloni has mixed experiments with stability in the final window. His June squad against Chile and Colombia blended old hands and fresh faces and, importantly, saw Lionel Messi put minor knocks behind him.

A return to the tried-and-trusted 4-3-3 is expected for Guayaquil. Sports Mole’s most recent projected XI for an Argentina–Ecuador encounter, updated this year, still tracks with how Scaloni lines up when the stakes rise:

• GK Emiliano “Dibu” Martínez
• RB Nahuel Molina
• RCB Cristian Romero
• LCB Lisandro Martínez
• LB Marcos Acuña (Tagliafico is the other seasoned option)
• CM Leandro Paredes (deep-lying organiser)
• CM Rodrigo De Paul (box-to-box engine)
• CM Giovani Lo Celso or Enzo Fernández (creative left-half-space)
• RW Lionel Messi (inverted playmaker)
• ST Lautaro Martínez (penalty-box finisher)
• LW Alejandro Garnacho or Ángel Di María (width and direct dribbling)

What it tells us

Scaloni’s spine—Martínez, Romero, De Paul, Messi—remains sacrosanct. The only genuine questions are on the left: Acuña or Tagliafico at full-back and whether Garnacho’s raw pace or Di María’s veteran craft starts. In midfield, the coach must decide if the safer passing of Lo Celso outweighs the vertical running of Enzo Fernández. Whichever blend he chooses, the pattern seldom changes: full-backs push high, Messi drifts inside to create an overloaded midfield box, and Lautaro attacks the six-yard space.

Options off the bench

• Julián Álvarez is the first attacking change, either as twin No. 9s with Lautaro or straight swap.
• Nico Paz and Thiago Almada supply youthful flair between the lines.
• Guido Rodríguez can close a game by sitting just in front of the centre-backs.
  Expect two keeper choices (Walter Benítez and Agustín Rossi) but if Dibu is fit he plays every minute.

Ecuador: probable starters

Sebastián Beccacece has forged a settled XI during a stellar campaign that began with a three-point deduction yet still has La Tri in automatic qualification. His only long-term absentee is left-back Pervis Estupiñán, out with an ankle injury.

Sports Mole’s projected line-up for their June showdown with Brazil mirrors what Ecuador usually fields and is the template pundits expect against Argentina:

• GK Hernán Galíndez (an ever-present in qualifying)
• RB Joel Ordóñez
• RCB Willian Pacho
• LCB Piero Hincapié
• LB (cover for Estupiñán) – possibly Ángelo Preciado redeployed wide or youngster José Hurtado
• DM Moisés Caicedo (screening and tempo control)
• CM José Cifuentes or Jordy Vite (shuttler)
• CM Alan Franco (ball winner)
• RW Gonzalo Plata (direct runner)
• LW John Yeboah / Jeremy Sarmiento (inside-forward cuts in)
• ST Enner Valencia (captain and record scorer)

What it tells us

Beccacece likes a 4-3-3 that can morph into a 4-4-2 mid-block. With Caicedo patrolling the space in front of the centre-backs, the full-backs are encouraged to surge high. The absence of Estupiñán removes some thrust on the left, so Plata and Sarmiento (or Yeboah) are tasked with stretching play. Valencia, now 35, still delivers tireless diagonal runs that create room for late surges by midfielders.

Tactical flashpoints

Messi vs Hincapié & Pacho

Messi’s habit of dropping into the right-half space will force Ecuador’s centre-backs to choose between stepping out or passing him on to Caicedo. A mistimed press leaves Lautaro ready to dart behind.

The Caicedo–De Paul engine-room duel

Caicedo’s stamina and tackling underpin Ecuador’s structure. De Paul, who thrives on chaos, will try to drag him wide and open seams for Paredes’ forward passing.

Width on the left

Without Estupiñán, Ecuador’s left flank is lighter on forward thrust. If Acuña starts, expect Argentina to funnel attacks through his overlaps, aiming early crosses for Lautaro’s near-post runs.

What the benches can change

Argentina can inject fresh energy with Julián Álvarez and Nico González, flip to a back three by adding Leonardo Balerdi, or slow the tempo with Guido Rodríguez. Ecuador’s depth is thinner: Kevin Rodríguez offers a raw target up front, while teenage prodigy Kendry Páez provides spark between the lines. Keeper Alexander Domínguez is an experienced alternative if Beccacece prefers height to Galíndez’s reflexes.

Why the line-ups matter even in a “dead rubber”

1. Momentum into 2026 – Both managers want rhythm going into the long build-up to North America.
2. Personal milestones – Messi could earn cap #186, while Valencia is three shy of a century.
3. Auditions – Scaloni has hinted at refreshing older roles; Garnacho, Almada, and Paz know a strong cameo here can nudge them up the pecking order.
4. FIFA ranking points – they affect pot allocation for the World-Cup draw.

In simple words: what to expect on the night

• Argentina will try to hog the ball, slow the pace early, and punch through quick one-twos when Messi sees a gap.
• Ecuador will press in bursts, banking on altitude-style fitness to finish the stronger in sticky Guayaquil air.
• If the hosts score first, expect an open contest; if Argentina draw first blood, Scaloni is likely to drop the block a little deeper and break through Di María or Garnacho on counters.

Line-ups can still change—final starting elevens are released an hour before kick-off—but the names above are the ones fitness trackers, recent call-ups, and coaching preferences point toward right now.

However, the game unfolds, Guayaquil should get a spectacle: one side led by the greatest play-maker of his generation, the other powered by one of the planet’s most dynamic young midfielders. That alone is reason to tune in.