Buffalo and Miami square off twice every regular season, and lately the stakes have felt playoff-level every time. To keep things focused, we’ll zoom in on:

1. Week 18, January 7, 2024 in Miami – a winner-takes-the-division night game that Buffalo captured 21-14.
2. Week 9, November 3, 2024 in Orchard Park – a wild 30-27 finish decided by Tyler Bass’ 61-yard field goal with five seconds left.

Both match-ups featured the same core stars—Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and a pair of electric young running backs—so they give us a clean A/B look at how personnel, game plans, and tiny stat swings can tilt the final score.

Game 1: Bills 21, Dolphins 14 (Jan 7, 2024)

Setting: Hard Rock Stadium, South Florida. AFC East title on the line. Buffalo fans turned the place red, white, and royal blue, but Miami still held the second-quarter momentum.

Quick scoreboard snapshot

Quarter	BUF	MIA
1	0	0
2	7	14
3	0	0
4	14	0
Final	21	14

Offensive headline stats

Category	Bills	Dolphins
Total yards	473	275
Plays	77	48
Pass yards	345	167
Rush yards	128	108
Turnovers	3	2
Time of poss.	38:07	21:53

What stands out?

• Buffalo’s volume advantage. Seventy-seven snaps versus forty-eight meant Allen and company simply had more swings at the piñata.
• Miami’s big-play bursts. Two quick touchdowns (a 25-yard De’Von Achane dash and a three-yard Tyreek Hill snag) provided all 14 Dolphin points before halftime.
• Fourth-quarter flip. A 96-yard punt return by Deonte Harty and a five-yard Dawson Knox TD catch swung the night.

Individual stat nuggets

Bills star	Line
Josh Allen	30-of-38, 359 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT; also 15 carries, 67 yds
Khalil Shakir	6 catches, 105 yds (game-high)
James Cook	13 carries, 36 yds; 3 catches, 16 yds

Dolphins star	Line
Tua Tagovailoa	17-of-27, 173 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Tyreek Hill	7 catches, 82 yds, 1 TD on 13 targets
De’Von Achane	10 carries, 56 yds, 1 TD; plus 1 catch, 5 yds

Key turning points explained in plain language

1. Taron Johnson’s red-zone tackle for loss (3rd quarter). Miami was inside the 10 looking to extend a 14-7 edge. Johnson knifed in, stopped Achane for minus-2, and the Fins settled for a field-goal try they missed. Momentum shifted.
2. Harty’s coast-to-coast punt return (early 4th). Instead of defending a long field, Allen jogged on tied 14-14.
3. Allen’s “trust throw” to Knox. Five-yard score capped a 55-yard march that chewed over five minutes.

Buffalo’s defense finished with 48 combined tackles and one sack, but the real damage came from blanketing Hill on deep routes in the second half. Miami’s offense managed just 108 yards after intermission.

Game 2: Bills 30, Dolphins 27 (Nov 3, 2024)

Setting: Highmark Stadium, upstate New York. Cold, windy, but not snowy—ideal rocket-leg conditions for Tyler Bass.

Quick scoreboard snapshot

Quarter	MIA	BUF
1	3	3
2	7	3
3	3	14
4	14	10
Final	27	30

Offensive headline stats

Category	Dolphins	Bills
Total yards	373	325
Plays	66	68
Pass yards	231	235
Rush yards	149	94
Turnovers	1	1
Time of poss.	31:53	28:07

What stands out?

• Efficiency clinic by Tua. Twenty-five completions on 28 attempts—an 89-percent clip—kept Miami on schedule nearly all afternoon.
• Allen’s splash plays. A 63-yard bomb to rookie Ray Davis and a two-point dart to Keon Coleman injected sudden points after halftime.
• Bass the difference. The 61-yarder wasn’t just the winning kick; it was his third made field goal of the day.

Individual stat nuggets

Dolphins star	Line
Tua Tagovailoa	25-of-28, 231 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT; one sack for –7 yds
De’Von Achane	12 carries, 63 yds & 1 TD; 8 catches, 58 yds & 1 TD
Tyreek Hill	4 catches, 80 yds on 5 targets

Bills star	Line
Josh Allen	25-of-39, 235 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT; plus 19 rushes for 94 yds
Ray Davis	2 catches, 70 yds & 1 TD (63-yard strike)
James Cook	10 carries, 44 yds; 5 catches, 25 yds

Big-moment breakdown

1. Seesaw third quarter. Buffalo erupted for two touchdowns in five minutes, flipping a 10-6 deficit to a 20-13 edge.
2. Achane’s eight-yard equalizer (12:14 left). Miami’s rookie cutback run tied things at 20, underscoring his dual-threat growth.
3. Quintin Morris’ goal-line grab. Allen’s third touchdown pass reclaimed the lead with 6:18 left.
4. Jaylen Waddle’s tying score (1:38). Miami marched 81 yards, capped by a seven-yard slant.
5. Bass from another zip code (0:05). Sixty-one yards against the wind, good with room to spare. The crowd went bonkers.

Buffalo’s defense bent for 373 yards but forced one turnover (Kaiir Elam fumble recovery) and limited explosive completions. Miami’s defense countered with 56 tackles and one sack, yet couldn’t prevent Allen from scrambling for chain-moving yards eight separate times.

Comparing the two contests

Quarterback corner

Game	Allen passer rating	Allen rush yards	Tua passer rating	Tua rush yards
Jan 7 2024	101.6	67	62.7	7
Nov 3 2024	95.6	94	124.9	3

Allen’s line dipped a hair the second time, but his legs were a bigger factor. Tua’s efficiency spiked by 62 points thanks to zero turnovers and precision RPO strikes.

Ground game trends

• Buffalo: From 3.6 yards per carry in Miami to 4.9 in Orchard Park, mostly via Allen keepers and wider zone designs for James Cook.
• Miami: Stayed explosive both dates (5.4 and 4.8 YPC). Achane averaged 5.4+ in each tilt, flashing elite vision.

Target distribution

• Bills spread the wealth. Nine Bills caught passes in January; eight in November. Diggs led in neither game, yet Buffalo still eclipsed 230 air yards both times.
• Hill’s volume fluctuated. Thirteen targets in January dwindled to five in November as Buffalo bracket coverage shifted his way, freeing Achane and tight ends underneath.

Situational stats that swung outcomes

Situational down	JAN – Bills	JAN – Dolphins	NOV – Bills	NOV – Dolphins
3rd-down conv.	9-of-15 (60%)	4-of-10 (40%)	7-of-14 (50%)	6-of-11 (55%)
Red-zone TD %	40% (2-of-5)	100% (1-of-1)	75% (3-of-4)	66% (2-of-3)
Turnovers	3	2	1	1

Third-down dominance handed Buffalo extra drives in Game 1; red-zone sharpness (and Bass) carried Game 2.

What the numbers teach us

1. Snap count = opportunity. In Game 1, Buffalo ran 29 more plays—an extra quarter’s worth of offense. Even with three turnovers, that volume overwhelmed Miami’s efficiency.
2. Explosives vs. consistency. Miami’s highlight plays kept scores close, but Buffalo’s knack for 10-plus-play marches drained clocks and dictated pace.
3. Quarterback mobility as insurance. When Allen’s reads stalled, his scrambling delivered first downs. Tagovailoa, while deadly accurate, remains pocket-centric; if timing falters, drives risk stalling.
4. Special-teams wildcards. One punt return TD (Harty) and one record-setting field goal (Bass) directly swung 14 points across the two games—huge in seven- and three-point margins.
5. Rookie impact. Achane’s dual-score effort in Week 9 and 56-yard burst in Week 18 show how one back can stress even disciplined fronts. On the Buffalo side, rookies Davis (70-yard TD) and Coleman (two-point grab) provided fresh juice in 2024.

Looking forward

These rosters remain largely intact heading into the 2025 season, with added layers:

• Buffalo drafted a mauler guard to juice inside run lanes for Cook and signed a veteran slot corner to reinforce third-down coverage.
• Miami extended Achane and brought in another speed wideout to prevent bracket overload on Hill.

If trends hold, the next Dolphins-Bills clash will again hinge on:

• Which side finishes drives. Settling for three—or missing altogether—has bitten Miami twice in twelve months.
• Turnover margin. Allen’s high wire throws create splash plays but also danger; Tagovailoa’s precision keeps sheets clean yet can be bottled if the first read is smothered.
• Hidden-yardage moments. Think punt returns, surprise on-side kicks, or a late-game 60-plus yard Bass attempt now well within his proven range.

One thing’s certain: whenever these two AFC East powers line up, fans get drama, points, and enough stat lines to keep the spreadsheets humming until the next kickoff.