Just a week after a thrilling last-minute win against Baylor, Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes are heading to Central Florida for a Big 12 showdown this Saturday afternoon.

UCF has won all three games so far, both outright and against the spread, and is a solid 14-point favorite at home.

Bookmakers expect a high-scoring game with a total around 62 points. However, rain and winds of up to 10 mph could be a factor in Orlando.

Both teams have unique strengths they can leverage, and I’ll explain how this can influence a specific player prop.

Colorado vs. UCF Pick

Colorado’s offense has struggled with its running game, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry, leading to a shift away from running plays. With a low run-play rate of 36.4%, this matchup plays to their strength in passing, especially with quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Sanders and wide receiver Travis Hunter have developed a strong connection, with Hunter having twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team and leading in targets.

With the dynamic two-way player sitting at +900 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, he must continue to get chances to stay in contention. His receiving prop for Saturday is set at 96.5 yards, a mark he’s surpassed in five consecutive games. Going up against UCF, known for its weak pass defense, presents a perfect opportunity for him to shine. If both teams play to their strengths, it’s hard to imagine how the stops will come, making this matchup ideal for him to have a standout performance.

Colorado vs. UCF odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Colorado	+14 (-108)	+400	o62 (-112)
UCF	-14 (-112)	-535	u62 (-108)

Colorado Outlook

With a 3-1 record, Colorado is making progress towards its goal of 5.5 wins this season. However, they might not be favored again until Week 9 against Cincinnati. After a projected total of 3.5 wins in 2023, it’s clear the team has improved. Last year, they ranked 114th in defense, but this season they’ve jumped to 36th, showing a positive shift in their performance.

Colorado is gearing up for a tough matchup against UCF, which boasts a strong offense. The main hurdle for Colorado will be managing the Knights’ impressive rushing game, ranked second in the country with an average of 336.5 yards per game.

UCF stands out with a run-play rate of 73%, joining just four other teams, all of which are service academies.

The Knights boast a great rushing success rate of 57.4%. If they keep making good plays, they can take full advantage of their chances in the red zone.

UCF Outlook

UCF’s strong running game is key to their ability to control the clock. They average nearly 33.5 minutes of possession each game, placing them 14th in Division I. This focus on ball control helps keep their defense off the field, which is crucial since they struggle against the pass. Currently, they rank 105th in defensive efficiency, allowing 26 completions and 310.5 passing yards per game, making it even more important to dominate possession.

Gus Malzahn hasn’t seen great results since bringing Ted Roof from Oklahoma to lead the defense. In 2023, the Knights’ defense ranked 97th in Adj. EPA. With the Buffaloes likely following suit, opponents are passing against UCF more than ever.